1. By substituting duration for effort, he's mixing apples and oranges. While it's true that effort is proportional to duration in a project with constant staff, this isn't the case across a population of projects. We've known since the mid-1970s that these aren't linearly correlated. So, from a statistical perspective, they shouldn't be substituted one for another in the same graph, as in figures 1, 2, and 3. COCOMO and other models have shown that duration equals the square root or cubic root of effort.
2. To truly compare to the Cone of Uncertainty in figure 4, figure 5 should have plotted the inverse—estimated over actual—to make them "similar."
3. Little seems to say that uncertainty isn't reduced, contrary to what we have believed. And he uses the relative uncertainty on the remaining part of the project to make his point. I, for one, had never understood the cone to mean anything other than the absolute overall uncertainty. And using the "time until next milestone" plotted together with the estimated remaining time in figure 7 is again mixing up apples and oranges.
On the question of how duration data can be compared to effort data. In all of my analysis, the real issue is the comparison of the ratio of the actual to the estimate for either effort or duration. The ratio of actual over estimated effort is related to the ratio of actual over estimated duration by the ratio of actual over estimated average staff size. The question, then, is how does staff size change as it becomes apparent that the project was over- or underestimated? In our case, and in what I believe to be a high percentage of situations in software product companies, staff size was fixed by budgetary considerations and not increased. When that's the case, then the ratio of actual over estimated effort is identical to the ratio of actual over estimated duration.
Kruchten's comment about the COCOMO relation of duration and estimation is similar to statements McConnell has written—that because duration has been shown to be proportional to the cube root of effort, duration uncertainty could be reduced to the cube root of effort uncertainty if staff is added to the project. While this statement might be true in an ideal world, I think it misstates the issue.
Let's assume that a project's effort was underestimated by a factor of 4.0, and it proceeded with the originally estimated staff profile. Let's further assume that staff is added incrementally over the life of the project. Let's further assume that this staff addition could be made, and let's also ignore any Brook's Law implications. For the project duration to be underestimated only by a factor of 1.6 (the cube root of 4.0), this would require increasing the originally estimated average staff requirement by more than a factor of 4.0 by the end of the project. I certainly haven't seen anything like that on projects that are run by software product companies.
To reiterate, the estimation process at Landmark essentially guaranteed that effort was proportional to duration. Staff size was based on existing team size, which in turn was based on a product line budget established on the basis of product profitability. It was extremely rare for teams to add or remove staff during these projects. In general, the ratio of actual to estimated average staff was nearly 1.0.
On the question of iterative development. While it's true that, as a software product company, we deemed it critical to "respond to change over following a plan," it's not the case that all these projects were run using short-cycle iterative development. Also, even when projects were run with iterations, the project managers felt comfortable classifying the project into the four Microsoft Solution Framework phases: envisioning, planning, developing, and testing.
In any event, I don't see a lot of value in evaluating cones for a particular iteration. For strictly time-boxed iterations, such a cone for duration uncertainty would be meaningless. What's of interest isn't any individual iteration, but rather the ultimate release to the customer base. Figures 5 and 6 in my article properly represent the overall release using dimensionless time.
The primary difference between figure 5 and Boehm and McConnell's traditional Cone is that Boehm uses software phases and figure 5 uses dimensionless time. Figure 5's obvious drawback is that it can't be drawn until the project is over because dimensionless time depends on the actual delivery date. However, because figures 6 and 7 show that the relative uncertainty band is essentially unchanging, there are still useful guidelines for determining remaining uncertainty.
On the question of the Cone of Uncertainty as a best case. I don't have or know of any data to support or refute that the traditional Cone of Uncertainty is a best case. Actually, the cone that I present in figure 5 establishes the worst-case boundary scenario. At a point halfway to the ultimate release date, it's not possible to be off by more than a factor of 2. The upper bounding area is a hyperbola function of y = 1/ x, and the lower bounding area is given by y = x.
On the question of expert judgment and incorporating project knowledge. There's nothing inherent about expert judgment that prevents learning within a project or across projects. In fact, you could argue that expert judgment actually has a better chance of incorporating learning from the project than other estimation methods, assuming the same experts are involved throughout the project. Studies by Magne Jørgensen and others have shown that expert judgment is as good as, if not better than, other approaches. I would welcome any study at a software product company that demonstrates that alternative estimation approaches have resulted in improved estimation or more successful products.
On the question of improving estimates over time. It has often been stated that you can't really improve something until you start measuring it. I published an article a year ago in IEEE Software ("Context-Adaptive Agility: Managing Complexity and Uncertainty," May/June 2005) on how some changes to our development process and philosophy, aligned with agile software development approaches, let us manage uncertainty in a manner that tightened our differential between estimate and actual, as evidenced by an increase in EQF (estimation quality factor) from 4.8 to 8.4.
On the unasked question of why estimation is important (or not). Software effort and duration estimation is certainly an emotional issue, as you can see by the strong response to this article. My purpose in writing the article was to provide some depth of understanding for practicing software teams. As a practitioner in a software product company, I'm concerned that as an industry, we're looking at the wrong issue. We've let ourselves be talked into a definition of success that's primarily based on being "on time" rather than maximizing value delivery. I contend that "on time" is a poor proxy definition of success.
We can look at Microsoft WinWord 1.0 as an example. By the on-time definition, this project was a terrible failure. Yet I contend that it was one of the most successful projects in the history of software development. Why? The fact that I'm writing this letter using much of the technology developed in that release should give a clue. This project produced a product, and that product has generated substantial business value.
Because business value is a lagging indicator, it's difficult to measure. There's an old story about a man looking for his car keys under a street light. A stranger drops by and asks him where he dropped his keys. He responds by saying he dropped them over by the bench. When the stranger asks why he's not looking over by the bench, the man responds that the light is much better where he's looking now. We seem to do the same thing in software engineering. It's much easier for us to make and compare cost estimates than it is for us to estimate and measure value. But just because it's easier doesn't mean that we should focus on it to the exclusion of the value side of the equation. I encourage others to see if we can improve our understanding of value generation. To this end, I offer an article I wrote two years ago in IEEE Software ("Value Creation and Capture: A Model of the Software Development Process," May/June 2004), along with the several other excellent articles in that issue on return on investment.
Senior development manager