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Risk Elicitation in Precise and Imprecise Domains - A Comparative Study, Sweden and Brazil
Sydney Australia November 28-December 01
DOI Bookmark: http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/CIMCA.2006.189International Conference on Computati ...
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Ari Riabacke, Mid Sweden University
Mona Pahlman, Stockholm University/KTH
Tara Baidya, Pontif?cia Universidade Cat?lica do Rio de Janeiro
This paper presents a comparative study between two groups from different cultural contexts, Sweden and Brazil, when choosing among risky prospects. The study explores whether there are differences in choice behaviours when the uncertainty in the prospects is expressed as interval estimates instead of the traditional use of point estimates, as well as when prospects are displayed with and without expected monetary values. Both groups display similar choice behaviours when they choose among prospects where uncertainty is expressed as point vs. interval estimates, whereas the Brazilian respondents are more affected by EMV information. The results indicate that the employment of intervals to represent uncertainty can be beneficial and could facilitate the elicitation part in the use and development of decision analytical tools. Furthermore, there is a need for more flexible tools, more adapted to a prescriptive approach, since people from different cultural contexts seem to differ in their choice behaviours.
Citation:
Ari Riabacke, Mona Pahlman, Tara Baidya, "Risk Elicitation in Precise and Imprecise Domains - A Comparative Study, Sweden and Brazil," cimca, pp.10, International Conference on Computational Inteligence for Modelling Control and Automation and International Conference on Intelligent Agents Web Technologies and International Commerce (CIMCA'06), 2006
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