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Effective Estimation of Posterior Probabilities: Explaining the Accuracy of Randomized Decision Tree Approaches
Houston, Texas November 27-November 30
DOI Bookmark: http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/ICDM.2005.54Fifth IEEE International Conference o ...
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Wei Fan, IBM T.J.Watson Research
Ed Greengrass, US Department of Defense
Joe McCloskey, US Department of Defense
Philip S. Yu, IBM T.J.Watson Research
Kevin Drummey, US Department of Defense
There has been increasing number of independently proposed randomization methods in different stages of decision tree construction to build multiple trees. Randomized decision tree methods have been reported to be significantly more accurate than widely-accepted single decision trees, although the training procedure of some methods incorporates a surprisingly random factor and therefore opposes the generally accepted idea of employing gain functions to choose optimum features at each node and compute a single tree that fits the data. One important question that is not well understood yet is the reason behind the high accuracy. We provide an insight based on posterior probability estimations. We first establish the relationship between effective posterior probability estimation and effective loss reduction. We argue that randomized decision tree methods effectively approximate the true probability distribution using the decision tree hypothesis space. We conduct experiments using both synthetic and real-world datasets under both 0-1 and cost-sensitive loss functions.
Citation:
Wei Fan, Ed Greengrass, Joe McCloskey, Philip S. Yu, Kevin Drummey, "Effective Estimation of Posterior Probabilities: Explaining the Accuracy of Randomized Decision Tree Approaches," icdm, pp.154-161, Fifth IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM'05), 2005
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