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A Junction Tree Propagation Algorithm for Bayesian Networks with Second-Order Uncertainties
Arlington, Virginia November 13-November 15
DOI Bookmark: http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/ICTAI.2006.1418th IEEE International Conference on ...
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Maurizio Borsotto, GCAS Incorporated, USA
Weihong Zhang, GCAS Incorporated, USA
Emir Kapanci, Harvard University, USA
Avi Pfeffer, Harvard University, USA
Christopher Crick, Yale University, USA
Bayesian networks (BNs) have been widely used as a model for knowledge representation and probabilistic inferences. However, the single probability representation of conditional dependencies has been proven to be overconstrained in realistic applications. Many efforts have proposed to represent the dependencies using probability intervals instead of single probabilities. In this paper, we move one step further and adopt a probability distribution schema. This results in a higher order representation of uncertainties in a BN.We formulate probabilistic inferences in this context and then propose a mean/covariance propagation algorithm based on the well-known junction tree propagation for standard BNs [1]. For algorithm validation, we develop a two-layered Markov likelihood weighting approach that handles high-order uncertainties and provides "ground-truth" solutions to inferences, albeit very slowly. Our experiments show that the mean/covariance propagation algorithm can efficiently produce high-quality solutions that compare favorably to results obtained through painstaking sampling.
Citation:
Maurizio Borsotto, Weihong Zhang, Emir Kapanci, Avi Pfeffer, Christopher Crick, "A Junction Tree Propagation Algorithm for Bayesian Networks with Second-Order Uncertainties," ictai, pp.455-464, 18th IEEE International Conference on Tools with Artificial Intelligence (ICTAI'06), 2006
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